Fitch'in notunun dipnotları

Bu akşamdan itibaren yurtta bir bayram havası şeklinde yansıtılacak olmasını beklediğim Fitch'in Türkiye'nin kredi notunu artırıması konusunu iyi okumakta yarar var. Ben bu tür durumlarda konuya bir iş anlaşması olarak yaklaşıp küçük yazılara da bakmayı tercih ederim.
Firtch'in açıklamasının orijinal metninin sonunda http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/press_releases/detail.cfm?pr_id=767565&cm_sp=homepage-_-FeaturedContentLink-_-Learn%20More bu kararın alınması sırasında yapılan kabuller sıralanıyor. Bunlar Suriye ile sıcak çatışmaya girmemizden terörün finansmanına kadar birçok maddeyi kapsıyor. İngilizcesini buraya yapıştırıyorum.

RATING OUTLOOK - STABLE
The main factors that could lead to positive rating action, individually or collectively, are:
- A material and durable reduction in the CAD, though Fitch does not anticipate this in the near term.
- A track record of lower and more stable inflation.

The main risk factors that could lead to negative rating action, individually or collectively, are:
- A 'balance-of-payments crisis' triggered by an external shock or a domestic policy mistake.
- A worse-than-expected increase in external debt ratios over the medium term, for example related to rapid credit growth and larger CADs.
- A major political shock with a material adverse impact on the economic and fiscal outlook.

KEY ASSUMPTIONS AND SENSITIVITIES
The ratings and Outlooks are sensitive to a number of assumptions.
- Fitch's economic and fiscal projections are based on the assumption that budget outcomes are broadly in line with the Turkish government's Medium-Term Program 2013-2015, consistent with a declining government debt/GDP ratio.
- Fitch assumes that the eurozone remains intact and that there is no materialisation of severe tail risks to global financial stability that could trigger a sudden stop to capital inflows to countries like Turkey with large CADs and net external debtor positions. Such a scenario would likely trigger a downgrade.
- Some escalation in regional instability cannot be discounted and is within the tolerance of the rating. However, Fitch does not expect the civil war in Syria to draw Turkey into a full-scale military conflict. If such an event took place and had a significant economic and fiscal impact it could lead to a downgrade.
- Fitch assumes that Turkey's membership of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is not suspended in February 2013 (as FATF threatened in October 2012 if Turkey failed to "adopts legislation to remedy deficiencies in its terrorist financing offence" and "establishes a legal framework for identifying and freezing terrorist assets consistent with the FATF Recommendations"); or if it is suspended, that does not precipitate countermeasures that materially adversely affect the capacity of Turkish entities to access international financing. If such a downside risk materialised it could lead to a downgrade.

Son maddede yer alan mali önlem görev gücü (FATF) ile ilgili madde geçen günlerde Milliyet gazetesinde Metin Münir ile yolların ayrılmasına yol açan kritik yazılardan biridir diye tahmin ediyorum. http://ekonomi.milliyet.com.tr/terore-karsiyim-ama-finansmani-serbest-olsun/ekonomi/ekonomiyazardetay/31.10.2012/1619560/default.htm
Ama bütün bunların ötesinde büyük sermaye akışlarının önünü açması için bir diğer kredi derecelendirme kuruluşunun (Moody's ya da S&P) takip etmesi gereken bu kararın gelişmiş ülkelerin finans politikaları ile bağlantısı nedir sorusunu sormak istiyorum. Benim yanıtım bugün paylaştığım WSJ makalesinde. 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204530504578076953350391848.html